Which Bet Types Offer the Best Returns in Horse Racing? A Data-Driven Look

While horse racing fans love the thrill of a longshot, the reality is clear: some bet types you place at online sportsbooks consistently perform better than others over time. Drawing from peer-reviewed studies on racing market efficiency, returns, and strategies, here’s what five years of research and historical results reveal about the most profitable bets in U.S. horse racing.

The Best ROI Bets? Here are Key Findings from Research & Market Data

Win Bets: Consistently Low Returns

Studies show that win bets are subject to market efficiency, where the payout usually aligns with the horse’s expected probability of winning.

Researchers found that bettors systematically overbet longshots and underbet favorites, creating an expected loss on average for win bets, especially on longshots (Asch, Malkiel, & Quandt, 1984).

Place & Show Bets: Surprisingly Profitable

A technical system developed for place/show betting showed positive profits, particularly by identifying “overlay” horses—those with higher implied odds than real chances (Hausch, Ziemba, & Rubinstein, 1981).

Another analysis confirmed that low-variance bets like place/show often outperform win bets for bettors focused on capital preservation (Quandt, 1986).

Exotic Bets (Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta): High Risk, High Reward

These bets require predicting finishing orders (top 2, 3, or 4) and thus offer large returns—but only rarely.

Theoretical models show exotic bets like trifecta and superfects yield negative expected returns for most players, but skilled bettors using historical data models can find profitable overlays (Ziemba, 2022).

They are popular for their lottery-like upside, especially at large tracks or marquee events.

Multi-Race Bets (Pick 4, Pick 5, Pick 6): The Domain of Syndicates

These bets are the most difficult to hit but can offer six-figure payouts. Professional betting teams leverage machine learning and statistical modeling to exploit inefficiencies in multi-race sequences (Ziemba, 2022).

For casual bettors, returns are low due to takeout rates and difficulty predicting multiple races.

Kelly Criterion & Value Bets

When bettors apply the Kelly betting strategy (proportional wagering based on edge and bankroll), they can achieve long-term growth even with moderate bet types (Profitable Strategies in Horse Race Betting Markets, 2013).

So, What’s the Best Bet?

Here’s a comparison of average expected returns (based on academic modeling and published studies):

Bet Type	Typical Return (ROI)	Volatility	Ideal For
Win	-10% to -15%	Low	Beginners
Place/Show	~0% to +5% (selective)	Low	Value hunters
Exacta	-20% on average	Medium	Experienced bettors
Trifecta	-25%+	High	Risk-tolerant players
Pick 5/6	Varies (huge upside)	Very High	Syndicates/pros

Note: Actual ROI varies by race, track, field size, and pool size. Overbetting and track takeout (typically 15–25%) significantly reduce profitability across all wagers.

Strategy Tips Backed by Research

Avoid betting favorites in late races, where public sentiment inflates odds excessively (Asch et al., 1984).
Place/show bets may be the only consistent +EV (positive expected value) options for casual players focused on long-term capital growth (Hausch et al., 1981).
Use statistical models, not gut feelings, especially in exotic or multi-race wagers (Ziemba, 2022).
Monitor track takeout rates; lower-takeout tracks (like Kentucky Downs) offer better odds for bettors.

Casual players often gravitate toward exotic bets for big wins, but over the long run, smart, small bets on place/show or underbet overlays offer the best chance of staying profitable. If you’re serious about returns, study patterns, use data models, and stick to bets where you have an edge with the trusted online horse betting platforms.