Betting long shots strategy in horse racing: pros and cons
The biggest argument for betting long shots is that you will realize good profits when you score, particularly in multirace or multihorse wagers.
The downside is that they don’t win or finish in the top three as often as favorites and top contenders, so you will cash less frequently if you routinely bet long shots and see your bankroll quickly consumed when you encounter an inevitable cold streak.
The key to betting “live” long shots is identifying horses that have legitimate excuses for recent sub-par races or are being dismissed by handicappers without good reason.
Among the factors that may indicate that a horse will improve sharply in today’s race include trouble in last race (particularly if it’s not mentioned in the race chart); changes in class (both upward and downward, depending on the situation); changes in distance; positive pace scenario today; gradual improvement signaling a top effort to come; a series of fast workouts, repeating a training move that has proven successful previously. There are many others.