How Australian & Japanese Racing Betting Differs from the US. & UK

Why Betting Behavior Isn’t Universal

Horse racing may be a global sport, but how people bet on it — and how betting markets behave — differs significantly between countries. Factors like wagering structure, bettor psychology, market efficiency, and race frequency all influence betting dynamics.

Here’s a look at how betting data in Australia and Japan contrasts with practices in the U.S. and UK — backed by academic studies and real betting trends.

Japan: Power-Law Betting & Herding Behavior

Japan’s betting market is one of the most mathematically fascinating. A study of Japan Racing Association (JRA) data found that the final odds in Japanese races follow a power-law distribution, meaning a small number of horses attract the vast majority of bets — not necessarily because of data but because of perceived popularity.

Key stat: Odds follow a consistent pattern: Po(x)∝1/xP_o(x) ∝ 1/xPo(x)∝1/x, where xxx is the final odds — essentially, bettors overwhelmingly favor perceived “strong” horses (Ichinomiya, 2006).

Another Japanese study modeled betting odds as a mean-reverting process, showing how bettors shift bets late based on current odds — a behavior called herding, similar to stock market trends (Sugawara & Mori, 2025).

Australia: Data-Driven Bettors and Risk-Taking

Australia’s online wagering market offers rich data. A longitudinal study of 2.5 million bets found:

86.7% of all bets were on races, not sports.
45.3% of all bets were simple win bets, and over 75% of all bets were losses.
Bettors placing bets on niche races or unusual markets had significantly higher average returns, suggesting more analytical or sophisticated behavior.

Interestingly, bet sizes were larger on specific, less popular wagers — likely due to a more analytical, value-seeking class of bettor willing to take informed risks (Gainsbury & Russell, 2013).

Also notable is the influence of insider knowledge, with studies estimating that up to 30% of Australian bets may be influenced by “second-hand” inside information, which boosts payoff expectations significantly (Schnytzer et al., 2010).

U.S.: Large Fields, Parimutuel Structure, and Regulation

The U.S. horse betting system uses parimutuel betting exclusively — meaning payouts are determined by how much is bet on each outcome. This leads to:

More volatile odds late in the betting window.
Larger returns in wide-open fields, especially at smaller tracks.
Limited transparency compared to fixed-odds models elsewhere.

One study found that U.S. bettors tend to overbet longshots and underbet favorites, leading to an “inefficiency” known as the favorite-longshot bias (Griffith, 2008).

Also, takeout rates in U.S. tracks remain high — between 17% and 25% — making profitable betting harder over the long run (Hereth & Talbott, 1993).

UK: Fixed-Odds Dominance and Betting Exchanges

The UK’s betting culture is deeply tied to bookmakers and fixed-odds betting, which allows punters to lock in odds at the time of the bet. This leads to:

Stronger competition between bookies to offer favorable prices.
Opportunities for arbitrage or line-shopping.
More price transparency.

A study comparing UK betting apps and parimutuel odds revealed inefficiencies and arbitrage potential — but also emphasized the divergence between expected value and actual returns (Johnson, 1999).

The UK also pioneered betting exchanges like Betfair, where bettors wager against each other. While controversial (due to potential “lay betting” abuse), research shows no widespread corruption (Brown & Yang, 2017).

Key Differences

Region	Dominant Bet Type	Market Type	Notable Traits
Japan	Win/Place	Parimutuel	Power-law odds, herding
Australia	Win/Exotics	Mixed: Fixed + Tote	Insider-informed, risk-seeking
U.S.	All bet types	Parimutuel only	High takeout, longshot bias
UK	Win/Each-Way	Fixed-odds + Exchange	Line shopping, strong price comp.

Betting Psychology Is Cultural

While the structure of betting systems matters, bettor behavior shaped by culture, technology, and regulation plays an even bigger role. Japanese bettors follow odds trends closely (herding), some use AI prediction tools and apps, Australians seek value through analysis or insider info, U.S. bettors take bigger risks with longshots in parimutuel systems, and UK punters have access to the most flexible odds landscape.