Horse betting tips: today’s UK selections from our racing predictor
Every UK race is rated against the market. Below are the predictor’s selections for today and tomorrow, the runners whose prices look too big and the market leaders our figures oppose, each with its reason in a line. Our Tuesday, Thursday and Friday tips pages go deeper on one day’s racing, and every Monday we settle the lot in public.
Today’s selections, race by race
The clearest pick in each UK race still to run, ranked by how far it leads the field on our figures. Tap a horse for its form, or a race for the full card and prediction.
Racing has finished for today, or prices are not up yet: try the Tomorrow tab.
| Selection | Top price | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Broomfields Cave1:30 Bangor-on-Dee · Has won over the distance | 9/47Bet | FAIR |
Prices too big: tomorrow’s value plays
Runners whose best price is longer than our figures say it should be.
Market leaders we oppose
Favourites priced shorter than their chance on our figures.
Our Tuesday, Thursday and Friday tips and big-race guides
Each weekday page keeps its address and is rewritten the evening before with that day’s declarations and prices. Big-race tips appear 3 days out and are revised the night before, and the Monday ledger settles every selection at the advised price.
Free bets for today’s selections
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How our predictor picks its horse betting tips
The selections here are not hunches. They come from the horse.bet racing predictor, which works through every runner on today’s cards and tomorrow’s as soon as bookmakers price them. The starting point is the market: the best price on each horse, with the bookmakers’ margin taken out, gives the chance the betting implies. Our figures then adjust it for recent form, ratings, how the stable has been running over the past fortnight, course and distance wins, first-time headgear and time off the track. The market carries 70 per cent of the weight and the form book 30 per cent.
Because each runner ends up with its own figure, the predictor can say two things a plain list of tips cannot: which prices are too big, and which favourites are too short. A winner taken at a poor price is a losing bet over time, while a beaten horse at a generous one may still have been worth backing.
Strong signals and warning signs in UK racing
Signals we like
- A top price longer than our figure: the predictor’s VALUE and BACK calls
- Proven winners over the course and trip, still in form
- Yards whose runners have been firing over the last two weeks
- Shopping around for the biggest price rather than settling for one bookmaker: see top prices by race
Warning signs
- Odds-on shots that our figures barely separate from the field
- Short prices for horses returning from a long absence
- Crowded handicaps where a single-figure price has no obvious reason behind it: how handicaps work
- Doubling up favourites in an accumulator just to fatten the odds
Favourites in UK racing: what the numbers show
In the last 90 days of UK racing, favourites won 35.9% of the 2,418 races in our results, and a £1 level stake on each at the starting price came back at -11.3%. Their strike rate was 48.4% in fields of two to five and 26.6% once 13 or more ran. Being the likeliest winner and being a good bet are different things, which is why some market leaders carry an AVOID call.
Making each racing tip go further
Price matters as much as the pick. Bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed pay the bigger price if a horse drifts, and some pay extra places in big fields: our horse racing betting sites guide shows which do what, and our reviews of bet365, SBK, the Smarkets exchange and William Hill set out their racing markets, terms and welcome offers. With longer-priced selections, an each-way bet pays out on a place as well; the each-way calculator works out the return, and the guide to extra places explains the terms. New to it? Form figures are the place to start. Every selection is settled afterwards against the official results.
Horse betting tips: common questions
What are today’s best horse betting tips?
Our predictor’s clearest selection tomorrow is Broomfields Cave in the 1:30 Bangor-on-Dee, best priced at 9/4 with 7Bet. Our figures give it a 27% chance, where the price implies 29%. The selections table above is recalculated as the market moves.
Do you publish tips for tomorrow’s racing?
Yes: once tomorrow’s runners are priced they are rated too. There are 20 UK races on tomorrow’s cards, and 20 have been rated so far. Top of the list is Broomfields Cave in the 1:30 Bangor-on-Dee at 9/4. Use the Tomorrow tab in the selections table.
What makes a horse a value bet?
Its price. A horse is value when the odds on offer are longer than its real chance justifies. We take the best price, remove the bookmakers’ built-in margin to find the chance the market is implying, and set that against our own figure. The widest gap tomorrow belongs to Captain Connor in the 3:05 Bangor-on-Dee: 14/1 implies 6.8%, and we have it at 13%.
Is backing the favourite a good strategy?
Not as a rule. In the last 90 days of UK racing, favourites won 35.9% of 2,418 races, and a £1 level stake on each at the starting price came back at -11.3%. Solid Performer in the 3:05 Bangor-on-Dee is one we oppose tomorrow: priced as a 53% chance, rated 43% by our figures.
Where do these racing tips come from?
From our racing predictor, which rates every declared runner. It begins with the best price across UK bookmakers, takes out the margin, then weighs recent form, the Racing Post Rating against the rest of the field, how the trainer’s horses have run in the last 14 days, course and distance wins, first-time headgear, a first run since a wind operation and time off the track. The market supplies 70 per cent of the final chance and the form book 30 per cent, and each selection shows its reasons.
Which days do you publish racing tips?
Every Tuesday, Thursday and Friday we publish a full tips page for that day’s UK racing, written the evening before from the declarations and first prices and kept at the same address each week. Big-race tips follow 3 days before the race, and on Monday we settle the previous week’s selections in public. Latest: Tuesday horse betting tips: Sherborne heads the day at Huntingdon.
18+ | GambleAware.org · These selections are analysis, not a promise of winners, and prices change: check them before you bet. Set a deposit limit and never chase losses. Free help: National Gambling Helpline 0808 8020 133.