The Grand National is a race unlike any other. Each April, Aintree draws an audience of millions, and for many in Britain, it is the one day of the year they place a bet. Yet beneath the spectacle lies a fascinating story about betting patterns: how favourites perform, when longshots upset the odds, and how payouts have shifted over the past ten years.
Favourites and the Odds Against Them
History shows the National has never been a kind race to favourites. According to Racing Post and historical records, favourites (or joint favourites) have only triumphed 12 times since 1950. Over the past decade, front-runners in the market have often fallen short, though they frequently placed in the top five.
The unpredictability of the 40-horse field and the four-and-a-quarter-mile trip means that even highly fancied runners can be undone. Punters who back the favourite rarely see spectacular payouts; instead, the National continues to reward those who are willing to take a chance on a horse further down the betting line.
Longshots and Memorable Wins
That is not to say outsiders win every year. The majority of winners in the last decade have started at odds between 10/1 and 16/1 at the UK’s top racing bookies, reflecting a balance between proven quality and each-way value. Yet the race remains famous for its longshots. Auroras Encore at 66/1 in 2013 and Mon Mome at 100/1 in 2009 still stand out in betting folklore, reminders that one big outsider can make a lifetime’s story for those holding the ticket.
In 2025, the race produced another surprise. Nick Rockett, trained by Willie Mullins, won at 33/1, part of a Mullins-dominated finish that saw him claim the first three places. It was a result that delighted some punters but caught out many who had focused on market leaders like I Am Maximus.
The Profile of a Winner
If there is a pattern to winning horses, it lies less in price and more in profile. Almost all recent winners were aged seven to nine, the bracket where stamina and maturity balance best. Weight is another critical factor. Horses carrying between 10st 5lb and 11st have been most successful, while top weights struggle against the demands of the trip.
Form matters too. Seven of the last ten winners had already secured a victory over fences that season. Aintree experience also helps: more than two-thirds of winners since 2000 had raced at the course before, even if not in the National itself.
Betting Volume and Market Trends
The Grand National is not only Britain’s most-watched race but also its biggest betting event. In 2025, bookmakers estimated over £150 million was wagered on the race, with online operators offering bonuses and reporting record activity. Interest remains particularly strong in so-called “narrative bets” such as grey horses, which traditionally attract heavy casual support; 2025 saw a record seven greys entered, prompting heightened volumes on these runners.
Looking Ahead to 2026 – Horse.Bet’s View
What, then, can punters expect in 2026?
The trends suggest that favourites will once again face an uphill battle to justify their odds. Horses aged under ten, carrying moderate weights, and with proven seasonal form are likely to represent the best value. Longshots will still catch the public imagination, but the data indicates that the true “golden range” sits around the 10/1–16/1 mark.
Bookmakers will be watching closely to see whether the dominance of powerhouse trainers such as Willie Mullins and owners like JP McManus continues. Their multiple entries give them strong chances across the board, a factor punters may need to weigh when placing their bets.
Looking towards 2026, the Grand National seems set to maintain its mix of unpredictability and enduring trends. We expect continued growth in online betting participation, especially as more casual fans use mobile apps to place small-stakes, novelty wagers. The balance between hard analysis and sentimental punts—on greys, on names, on favourite jockeys—will remain part of the race’s unique culture.
For sharp bettors, the National will always be a puzzle best approached with discipline: look to the mid-priced runners with age and weight on their side, and do not discount the depth of entries from the sport’s leading stables.
Sources
- Grand National – Wikipedia (2025 Race & History)
- Bet365: Grand National Trends
- The Sun: 2025 Betting Market
- The Guardian: Grand National 2025 Coverage
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