Favourite Win Rates in UK Flat vs Jumps Racing

In British racing, the favourite may appear to be the safest bet—but how often does backing the market leader actually result in success? Over the past five years, trends show clear differences between Flat and jumps (National Hunt) racing.

How We Get It: Our Methodology

This review draws on published race data from the British Horseracing Authority (BHA), long-term statistical archives such as FlatStats, and summary analyses from independent betting research platforms. We compared average win rates of starting-price favourites across both Flat and National Hunt (jumps) races between 2019 and 2024, noting differences by race type, odds band, and major events such as the Grand National. Percentages are rounded to the nearest whole number for clarity, but are grounded in official or industry datasets.

Flat Racing: Favourites Tend to Fare Better

Favourites win around 30–35% of races across the board. This figure comes from analysis covering 2002 to 2021, where favourites claimed victory in roughly a third of races, comfortably ahead of second (20%) and third favourites (14%).

When a favourite is priced at odds-on (1/4 or shorter), their success rate shoots up to 86%, especially in non-handicap Flat races or maiden contests where quality and predictability are higher.

Notably, in non-handicap Flat races at courses like Goodwood and Windsor, favourites can win as often as 47%, offering a decent return—especially in fields with fewer runners and consistent ground conditions.

Jumps Racing: More Unpredictable Still

In contrast, National Hunt racing turns favourites into a riskier prospect. Despite a higher frequency of odds-on favourites compared to the Flat—around 19% vs 13% since 1995—these favourites win significantly less often.

The Grand National illustrates this volatility: only 17% of favourites have ever won that race. In general, jumps racing is characterized by larger fields, challenging obstacles, variable ground, and stamina tests that make outcomes far harder to predict.

What Influences Win Rates

A few key factors explain the disparity:

• Race type and structure: Flat races are shorter and test fewer variables, favouring form and speed. Jumps races introduce fences, longer trips, and greater tactical complexity.
• Handicap impact: Many jump contests are handicaps, where talented favourites are deliberately weighted down, reducing their chances.
• Field size and fall risk: Bigger fields on jumps tracks increase chances of interference, and falls or unseated riders make upset outcomes more likely.
• Visibility of form: Flat race form and trials are easier to compare. Jumps form can be more opaque, making punter confidence less reliable.

Recent Seasons

• Tiger Roll bucked the odds-on trend, winning the Grand National at 4/1 in 2019.
• At Flat venues like Windsor, favourite strike rates in non-handicap races are approaching 47%, illustrating how form dominance plays out in simpler contests.
• In the 2025 Grand National, favourite Iroko finished fourth, while Nick Rockett (33/1) caused a headline upset—demonstrating how jumps racing favours bold, outsider bets.

Who to Bet On?

Looking ahead, the trends are likely to continue:

Flat Racing: Expect favourite win rates to stay around 30–35%, with standout opportunities in non-handicap meets on consistent ground.

Jumps Racing: Favourites are unlikely to gain more reliability—meaning punters should increasingly look to form-based outsiders rather than the market leader.

Strategy Shift: Savvy bettors will gravitate toward mid-range odds in Flat races and calculated outsider plays in jumps, using available data to identify value beyond just the fav.

As punters access better insights and tools, the Flat will remain the domain for steady play, while jumps will continue to reward informed risk.

Sources

• FlatStats – Odds-On Favourite Performance & Course-Specific Data
• PaddockPunter – Discipline Comparisons on Favourite Reliability
• GrandNational.Fans – Favourite Success in the Grand National
• RacingQuestions.co.uk – Overall Favourite Win Rate Averages
• TheGuardian Horse Racing Section

Credit:Tammy Walker

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Author:

Horse.Bet Team

Updated:

August 18, 2025

Published:

August 18, 2025